Peak Oil presentation

[Terry Syd Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Terry Syd]

I just got back from a couple of presentations about Peak Oil and Permaculture. Richard Heinberg did a brilliant job of presenting the Peak Oil issue, David Holmgren followed on with permaculture.

Heinberg appears to be taking the position that we are at the peak, albeit a plateau (you know what lies at the edge of a plateau don't you) and that the year that things really start accelerating down the slope will be in 2008. Let's see, that is what, a year and months away, possibly two years.

If you haven't got your biodiesel friendly vehicle, and a system for producing your fuel set up, maybe it would be a good idea to bump up the timetable a bit, you know, just in case.

[Tony From West Oz Vice Chairperson of WARFA Find all posts View Profile Close Tony From West Oz]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

There is a good article on Peak Oil on the ABC's 4 Corners page,abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1722956.htm
Follow the links to locate the background data on which oil producing countries have already 'Peaked"
Frightening!

[pangit Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close pangit]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

I was there too, Terry. Both very good speakers, and although I didn't go for the Permaculture talk specifically I found it very interesting and relevant. In fact we already have chooks and vegies in the garden, but we've never thought of ourselves as environmentalists/permaculturalists!

And I thought it was great that both of the speakers were pretty upbeat, rather than all doom and gloom as you might expect, with good ideas and practical solutions to the peak oil problem. I only hope their ideas gain a wider audience and acceptance, so they can be implemented at national and international levels before it's too late.

I was discussing with one of the other attendees on the train home about the whole idea that Peak Oil is a conspiracy by the oil companies to drive up prices and profits. It is one of the standard responses by Peak Oil sceptics (not that I am one necessarily). Richard Heinberg answered a question about it at the end by saying the theory was not started by the oil companies in the first place and that they have been trying to debunk it anyway. But it seemed a bit of a weak answer and not entirely convincing.

BTW, do you know when ABC Lateline will broadcast the piece, as they were filming the event?

[Terry Syd Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Terry Syd]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Nope, don't know when the ABC will put out the segment.

I noted as I left the forum all the people buzzing by in their SUVs. They were the ones that should have been there for the lectures. Holmgren and Heinberg were preaching to the converted.

Heinberg's depletion protocol is a great idea. Unfortunately there are too many sociopaths in our society, many of which are located in Canberra. The principle of the 'tragedy of the commons' will likely be applied to future oil supplies - if I don't use it someone else will.

I had a quiet laugh one time when a lecturer mentioned the last tree being cut down on Easter Island. He asked the question, "I wonder what that person could have been thinking at the time" - hell, I knew, "If I don't cut this tree someone else will".

Mate, get into permaculture - do it now. I'm enrolled for a permaculture garden landscaping class that starts next month at Ryde TAFE. I think there are still openings.

[Robert Administrator Find all posts View Profile Close Robert]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

From a Greens Media Release about the event:

Media Release 1 September 2006

Solutions to oil crisis in our backyards


As oil supplies shrink and petrol prices skyrocket, it is up to us to take action to reduce our dependence on this dwindling resource, said Ian Cohen, NSW Greens Upper House MP.

"Earlier this week in Sydney I hosted a forum by peak oil expert Richard Heinberg and permaculture expert David Holmgren that drew an audience of 700 people.

"Those at the event were alerted to the real threat that depleted oil supplies poses to the economy and our lifestyle. The free ride that we have had from oil won't last much longer.

"In Parliament yesterday I gave notice of a motion calling on the NSW Government to adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol.

"The protocol is an initiative sparked by Dr Colin Campbell, one of the leading lights on the peak oil concept.

"The protocol commits signatories to reduce oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate, roughly 2.5 per cent per year.

"We can all play a part in reducing the amount of oil that we consume, and the steps are easy. Refuse plastic bags when you are out shopping. Purchase locally grown or organic fruit and vegetables, or even start your own backyard vege garden. Consider ways you can cut your car use, like using more public transport and car pooling, and think about switching to alternative fuels - this will also save you money.

"Organisations and individuals are encouraged to sign up to the protocol and move towards a world that no longer depends on oil," Mr Cohen said.

*Find out more about the protocol at www.oildepletionprotocol.org

[shiner Donating Member Find all posts View Profile Close shiner]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

There is a good article on Peak Oil on the ABC's 4 Corners page,abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1722956.htm
Follow the links to locate the background data on which oil producing countries have already 'Peaked"
Frightening!

I have just read that tony and it was to me a real eye opener to see just how many countries have peaked, disturbing indeed

[Terry Syd Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Terry Syd]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Robert suggested that I answer a question in another thread about fuel rationing in a Peak Oil thread - so here it is.

I was around back in the 1970's. I remember the fuel rationing then, first it was only odd and even days (according to the last digit on you license plate), then it moved to 'only' five gallons of petrol on your day.

There were people sleeping overnight in their cars stopped at the bowser waiting to get fuel. The lines extended out in the street, then down the block, then around the corner. I remember people fighting over fuel - "I need that fuel!" (as if others didn't).

I also remember thefts from petrol stations, the tanks pumped dry, of vehicles where the lid to the gas cap was torn off with a crowbar so someone could syphon fuel. When locking gas caps were used, thieves even crawled under vehicles and punched holes in people's fuel tanks to drain out the fuel.

1973 was just a window into the future. The next fuel crisis will not be temporary, it is going to just keep getting worse, then worse, then....

The Canberra Clowns have done nothing of substance to prepare for this crisis. If you look around, the money they have granted to alternative fuels has gone primarily to subsidiaries of the petroleum industry. The flakes in government are still building more highways (graft in road works is likely). The Greenhouse Office is just a blackhole that taxpayers money drops into to pay for plush carpets, glossy brochures and coffee machines. The Sustainable Energy Development Authority has pissed away heaps of money, so where is the sustainable energy?

There is one thing that the Government has done, and this is the only thing I have found that indicates how the Government intends to handle this crisis - let me introduce you to the 'Liquid Fuels Emergency Act 1984'. It was redrafted about two years ago.

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/c...t/lfea1984213/

[pangit Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close pangit]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Yes, the government would rather prepare for an emergency fuel shortage then wait for it to happen, than encourage a gradual reduction in usage and development of alternatives.

The former is a short sighted bury-your-head-in-the-sand approach with disastrous consequences, where the latter would require short term pain for long term gain. So of course the pollies, who never look beyond the next election, go for the popular rather than responsible option. Not to mention they do whatever the oil companies want them to.

It's the same with climate change. I can't believe Johnny's still denying its very existence. I can just picture him when the sea level is up to his neck, saying, "I'm sorry, but I just don't accept the connection between burning fossil fuels and climate chan..... glug!"

[Gunner Donating Member Find all posts View Profile Close Gunner]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

I can't believe Johnny's still denying its very existence. I can just picture him when the sea level is up to his neck, saying, "I'm sorry, but I just don't accept the connection between burning fossil fuels and climate chan..... glug!"

When Kirribilli House is put up for sale as a "Non-Core Government asset", you know Johnny has realised rising sea levels are coming!

[gwalker Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close gwalker]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Today's Gulf of Mexio find, increasing the US reserves by 50%, will have a few people recalculating somewhat but the clock still clicks on nevertheless...tick...tick...tick!

[pangit Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close pangit]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Indeed it does. And according to the BBC:

Experts caution that the true size of the oil field is not yet known and it will be a long time before any of the oil there enters the market.

"In the last 15 years, there've been so many great projects that started out and then petered out," Matt Simmons, the head of a group of energy investment bankers, told Reuters news agency.

Recently in the Gulf of Mexico, "there's been a lot more bitter disappointments than phenomenal surprises", he said.

The head of an energy consulting firm, Art Smith, told the Associated Press news agency that despite the discovery, the US will still be importing more than 50% of its oil needs.

"The US still has a big difference between its consumption and indigenous production," Mr Smith said.

Experts said the oil from the well is unlikely to be available for many years and the discovery is not going to ease spiralling global oil prices.

So it is unlikely to have a major impact on global supply and Peak Oil. At best it can only postpone the peak by a short time, which will make no real difference in the end. It will only make any difference if our leaders understand that preparations need to be put into place NOW, rather than waiting until it's too late.

The Oil Depletion Protocol makes a lot of sense to me, and the sooner governments accept and adopt it, the easier it will be for us in the future. As Richard Heinberg said at the talk: "If the brakes in your car start to fail, you don't wait to get them fixed, you do it straight away. If you do nothing then you will end up a the bottom of the hill in a heap".

The whole idea of the protocol is to give us a soft landing, or a "managed reduction" in our usage, to slowly wean ourselves off it. There are many ways to achieve it, such as rationing, quotas etc, both at a national and individual level. And lets face it, it would not be difficult to reduce our energy consumption by 3% per year if we were forced to. Most of us in the west are woefully wasteful and thoughtless of the energy that we use.

The reason the pollies are continuing to ignore it (apart from being in the oil companies' pockets) is that it will cause the economy to slow down in the short term, and that will cost them votes. But as it's going to happen anyway it's better to manage it properly rather than let market forces take care of it, which will lead to much bigger economic problems, and all the fallout from that.

People are conditioned to think that technology will provide the answer, as it always has in the past, and we will all be driving around in fuel cell or electric cars. But the Peak Oil proponents argue that we simply don't have time to wait. There is no magic bullet. The technology, not to mention the massive investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, will not be ready if PO hits any time in the next 10-15 years. And most believe it will be in the next 4-6 year, if it's not happening already. So in the mean time we need to make painful decisions at the government level to prepare ourselves. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen, certainly while we've got Johnny boy in charge, and probably not until there is a massive groundswell of public opinion that makes it a major election issue.

[Terry Syd Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Terry Syd]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Here's a WA politician that is telling it like it is -

"The Prime Minister is selling Australia short by pinning his hopes on a fall in petrol prices.

Planning and Infrastructure Minister Alannah MacTiernan said that major Federal investment in public transport was vital if Australia was to avoid major disruption as global petroleum production reached its peak.

"John Howard's prediction of fuel at $1.15 by Christmas might bring some temporary cheer, but upon closer inspection the gift is an empty one," Ms MacTiernan said.

"A better present would be for Canberra to acknowledge that the cost of oil will continue to rise and investment in solutions that will cut our dependence on petroleum."

http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au...6?OpenDocument

[Cameron Moderator Find all posts View Profile Close Cameron]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Hi gwalker,
Can you give us a link to this info about a new oil find on the web somewhere please?

Cheers,
Cameron

[gwalker Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close gwalker]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Hi gwalker,
Can you give us a link to this info about a new oil find on the web somewhere please?

Cheers,
Cameron

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...8890&ft=1&f=17

http://www.npr.org/dmg/dmg_wmref.php...PRMediaPref=WM

enjoy

[Terry Syd Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Terry Syd]

Re: Peak Oil presentation

Here is a deeper analysis on this recent find -

"The September 5th announcement by Chevron and Devon and Statoil of the huge Gulf of Mexico discovery should be clarified. The announcement claims that the discovery could increase US proven reserves of oil by as much as 50%. However, the total amounts are highly speculative. Additionally, the discovery likely won't impact oil markets but could potentially impact natural gas markets since the discovery is probably mainly natural gas. The area will not come online for at least 4 years and, at a full rate, for at least 7 years. Further, it is likely that there are political motivations behind the announcement, as the vote to open offshore drilling in the United States is upcoming in the US Senate."

http://www.energybulletin.net/20140.html