Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

You accused me to be posting on behalf of an oil company who is supposed to be paying me and expect me to answer your list ?

Start deleting your libelous accusations and I may consider reading your post.

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

.....the main premise behind both of those (global warming is caused by increased solar radiation) has since been disproved:
The Guardian article referred to is here.

Many findings, opinions, trends, when first initiated were received with ridicule sarcasm or worst.
In the times when religion was government, people went to prison for supporting the heretical idea that the earth was spheric and that it was NOT the center of the universe, rotating around the sun....Eppur si muove.

Read all about it here...no it is not about my friend Galileo

Important decisions of what will happen with the climate in the coming decade is made right now..!!
Not by any climatologist, not by politicians, not even by the IPCC, not by you and me..., but by the SUN!!!
Yes, by the Sun!!
Currently the Sun is at solar minima. It is now at its lowest activity level in the sunspot cycle, displaying only a few sun spots or showing no sunspot at all.
There exist a close relationship between the length of a sunspot cycle and the earth's temperature as displayed in figure 5.
All solar physicists are now looking with intense interest for the sun's next move.
On the 4th of January 2008, with the arrival of a new sunspot at a high latitude, a new solar cycle was born! Solar Cycle 24!
We have now entered a transition time between Solar cycle 23 and Solar Cycle24. This does not mean that we are now in Solar Cycle 24. That's something which happens first when the intensity of the new cycle is greater than the previous cycle.
So, when will we enter the new solar cycle 24?
Nobody really knows!...Already the start of the new solar cycle, solar cycle 24 have been severely delayed. It should have started in January 2007, but it didn't.
From the relationship between the Sun Spot Cycle length and the temperature, one can calculate that by each day the start of the next Solar Cycle is delayed, that that extra day's delay corresponds to about 1.4 thousand of a degree centigrade cooling of the Earth's climate.
With the appearance of the first sunspot of the next cycle in early 2008, this would cool the Earth by about 0.5 degree centigrade during the next Solar Cycle. This would be the case if this solar cycle would start at the same time as the first new sunspot of the new solar cycle appeared.
The problem is that this isn't the case. We have to wait until we finally enter the new solar cycle when the activity from the new cycle is stronger than the previous one, which should take at least one additional year. This should cool the Earth by about 1 degree centigrade.
With the current weak solar activity this could mean that it might take one year further. This would bring the extent of the delay of the new cycle to there year longer than normal. In either case we should expect the earth's mean temperatures to drop to levels not seen since the Little Ice Age within the next solar cycle.

What is happening right now signal a drastic shifts in the Earth's climate and we will likely see dramatic drops in temperature the coming decades, starting in the next coming years.
The well known 11 year Solar Cycle is not the only Solar Cycle. In fact there are several cyclical Solar Cycles working on longer time scales. It has been well known among solar physicists for a long time that the combining effect of these cycles will likely cause the climate to enter a cool phase in the early 21st century.
How deep will this change in climate be?
Nobody knows for certain, but it is now very likely that it will soon fall to levels we haven't been seen since "The Little Ice Age". View The Sun Today!
What is the process for this cooling?
The cause for this cooling, I believe after looking at the science, is that it is caused by variation in cosmic radiation. Because the Solar Cycle right now is longer than normal, the Sun is spending more time in a low solar activity state, this means that more high energy cosmic radiation from deep space penetrates deep into the Earth's atmosphere creating more clouds which reflects away more of the Sun's warming sunlight. The result is that the Earth cools. And because this cooling phase occur over a longer time than normal the climate will change. There will be a time lag of this cooling caused by the oceans, therefore the effects will come gradually over time in the next decade.
Although most climatologists are unaware that the climate might turn to a much cooler phase, the two theories for climate change, human caused global warming and climate change caused by variation on cloud cover that is caused by modulation from cosmic radiation will meet each other head to head in a few years time.
At that time, based on more reliable data, we will have a much better knowledge and understanding of the real causes for the recent as well as future climate changes.

Another interesting method to monitor the earth's energy balance has been made by a group at CALTECH with a simple and effective method. They have monitored The Earth's Albedo (The Earth's sunlight reflectivity), by monitoring the light intensity from the dark side of the Moon. By doing this they can measure the light variations that the Earth is emitting out into space, and thus calculate variations of the amount of light energy the Earth is absorbing from the Sun.

They have come up with some rather surprising results.
First, the variation in the Albedo which changes as a function of variation of the cloud cover on the Earth seems to be much greater than expected.
Secondly, this variation is much greater than can be expected from the calculated impact that only greenhouse gases would bring.
Thirdly, The variations of the Albedo follow variations of the Earth temperature that have been registered by satellites. This strongly indicated that it is variations in the Earth's cloud cover which is the main cause for climate change and not variation in levels of greenhouse gases.
This study seem to strengthening the hypothesis but forward by Svensmark that variation in cosmic radiation is the main cause for climate changes and weaken the hypothesis that anthropogenic greenhouse gases play a major part in present climate change put forward by climatologists.
To learn more see this video on Henrik Svensmark's work on this page about cloud and climate.
I would prefer to call the global warming promoting climatologists as "thermodynamic fundamentalists", those who believe that the main driver in climate change are variations in the levels of heat and cool trapping trace gases.
To better understand the controversy over global warming it is necessary to also understand why most climatologists believe it is the increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which are causing the current temperature increase.

Is this list of cold extreme weather proof of a climate change during time of global warming?

[TroyH Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TroyH]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Is this list of cold extreme weather proof of climate change during a time of global warming?

The frequency of both record high and record low temps has been on the increase. We have had record high summer temps here in Perth this summer, and last year when I was in Europe over winter, there was almost no snow to be seen in the parts I travelled. Even in the alps. Yet in London they have massive snowfalls and Norway had one of their best snow seasons in recent years.

You can't use such events to claim global warming or cooling, but they are obviously indicative of certain other factors (like the slowing of the gulf stream). Most of the comments I have heard about global warming, supports extremes changes in weather conditions.

Most of the information you have posted Marc1, has just been copied from somewhere else, and shows no real understanding on your part. Some of the data (in particular, the sunspot vs "temperature anomaly" data) certainly draws some erroneous conclusions.

WTF do they mean by a "temperature anomaly" anyway? Fluctuation maybe, but the word "anomaly" would suggest the temperature is somehow different from what it is supposed to be (but of course, there is no correct temperature, so this position makes no sense).

One of those websites is written by a "television meteorologist". LOL!

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

“Those to whom intellectual freedom is personally important may be a minority in the community, but among them are the men of most importance to the future. We have seen the importance of Copernicus, Galileo, and Darwin in the history of mankind, and it is not to be supposed that the future will produce no more such men. If they are prevented from doing their work and having their due effect, the human race will stagnate, and a new Dark Age will succeed, as the earlier Dark Age succeeded the brilliant period of antiquity. New truth is often uncomfortable, especially to the holders of power; nevertheless, amid the long record of cruelty and bigotry, it is the most important achievement of our intelligent but wayward species.”

Bertrand Russell from his book Religion and Science.

[TroyH Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TroyH]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Are you comparing yourself to Copernicus, Galileo and Darwin?

lol

How do you know that those who's ideas you are supporting, are not the ones trying to hide the truth?

[Captain Echidna Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Captain Echidna]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Marc1, as requested I have removed parts where I have questioned your motives, and also removed a quote from another member (where the original post has been removed).

As previously requested, could you please offer some examples or backup on how the government will...

a) Collect more money by inventing a whole array of new taxes.
b) Make more money with the biggest scam on earth after the selling of tap water in plastic bottles... "carbon trading"
c) take away your personal freedom with the excuse of "the greater good"

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

The Monash University modelling, commissioned by the Climate Institute, found the Commonwealth will generate between $7 and $20 billion in new revenue through the sale of emissions permits.

Emissions trading 'could produce $20b windfall' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Comment is free: Tanks for the memory

Global Warming & Civil Liberties » Celsias

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Most of the information you have posted Marc1, has just been copied from somewhere else, and shows no real understanding on your part.

It is rather arrogant to assume you can actually know what I happen to understand from quotes written by someone else and pasted here in a hurry in the little time I concede to this forum.

As I repeatedly said before, man made global warming is a fabrication, a made believe that lots of people including scientist have taken up because it fits their own way of thinking and not because it is actually correct interpretation of data.
The common citizen also wants to believe what "a current affair" feeds him and joins the cult.
We had the cult of flat earth and earth centered universe. The crusades cult. The patriotism/race cult. The 6 millions Jews gassed cult. The weapons of mass destruction cult. Yet the most lucrative and most widespread of them all, one that does not know political nor cultural barriers, the best fabrication ever, the man made global warming cult. Voice your skepticism and you are going to be strung up by the good citizen with the rope...virtually

[Captain Echidna Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Captain Echidna]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

The 6 millions Jews gassed cult. The weapons of mass destruction cult.

Hey Terry agrees with you on the first one and I agree on the second. We do have something in common!

Seriously I do think some "freedoms" need to be challenged that you have quoted. I am not sure I consider it a great loss of freedom if I cant by an incandescent globe, nor drive a landcruiser through a city area without paying extra. (and I own a landcruiser, so have a vested interest in it not happening) I cant buy leaded petrol anymore but its not a real loss. I cant buy a car without emmision controls, cant buy DDT... Are these really losses of freedoms, or just part of being responsible?

I guess though if I consider the "global warming is a hoax" is true, and then consider what next, I am left with a feeling of then we still need to curb the world’s usage of fossil fuel, and find alternatives, as fossil fuels are finite, and fossil fuel companies are geared for profit, not the long term survival of civilisation. As the government currently receives a lot of income from taxing fossil fuels, its obvious that its not a stable situation, so transferring to a "carbon" tax scheme (therefore in effect, an energy tax) makes sense. I guess the new taxes and carbon trading not such a bad thing.

However if global warming is happening due to CO2 emissions, it is something that wont be able to be undone, And the earlier the start in reduction the better. Of course the only real loosers will be those with an interest in fossil fuel.

Thanks for the information.

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Some freedoms need to be challenged....yes, a common sentiment. I sometimes wish I could "challenge" the freedom people have to cut me off on the freeway by stopping their engine with Marconi's secret weapon.

I am sure you realize that a side effect of freedom is abuse. How much people abuse lack of compliance mechanism depends on how much freedom they are used to. A person migrating from a country governed by a tyranny will brake every rule under the sun when in Australia and consider Australians stupid.
Someone coming from a tradition of freedom and mutual respect will need little compliance systems to keep him within the law....generally speaking of course.

The problem arises when corrupt government, realize that the population actually craves more laws and use this craving for their own purposes. How many times have you heard people suggesting that something that is bothering them "should be illegal"?
It is this senseless disregard for their own freedom that allows incompetent or corrupt authorities to over legislate and impinge on personal freedoms starting with those that apparently "make sense".
The reality is that they never make sense, freedom is there for a reason, so that we can exercise our choices and self regulation. It is only in extreme cases the the government should intervene and then only so that personal freedom is not curtailed. After all the government is not there by blood line or because they own the land. They are our employees we appoint to administer what is ours.

[TroyH Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TroyH]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Climate Change: A guide for a perplexed Earth.

Climate change: A guide for the perplexed - earth - 16 May 2007 - New Scientist Environment

What it's about:

Our planet's climate is anything but simple. All kinds of factors influence it, from massive events on the Sun to the growth of microscopic creatures in the oceans, and there are subtle interactions between many of these factors.
Yet despite all the complexities, a firm and ever-growing body of evidence points to a clear picture: the world is warming, this warming is due to human activity increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and if emissions continue unabated the warming will too, with increasingly serious consequences.
Yes, there are still big uncertainties in some predictions, but these swing both ways. For example, the response of clouds could slow the warming or speed it up.
With so much at stake, it is right that climate science is subjected to the most intense scrutiny. What does not help is for the real issues to be muddied by discredited arguments or wild theories.
So for those who are not sure what to believe, here is our round-up of the 26 most common climate myths and misconceptions.

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

the world is warming, this warming is due to human activity

Yes, there are still big uncertainties in some predictions, but these swing both ways.

Lets just publish something that appears to be balanced and taking all factors into account yet place the most radical and unproven statement in it firmly in place as it belongs among the balanced opinions matter of fact.
Yea right.

The above is one way of soften the skeptics up and place them in the uncool, radical, extremist, enemy of God and country position.

Another is humour. Make up a funny story were the bull dust to be believed is exagerated to a funny situation.

There are lots of ways to make believe. Yet we always have the choice of actually thinking for ourselves.

[TroyH Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TroyH]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Did you read the link Marc1?

It explains and debunks some of the myths associated with global warming. Including a couple that you linked to earlier.

What makes you believe your "sources" over others? Is it not all simply someone elses words, ideas and predictions?

[TroyH Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close TroyH]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

The fallacy of CO2 causing global warming is evident in the ice cores that show that the fluctuations in world temperatures are not preceded by CO2 but the high concentrations of CO2 actually FOLLOW increases in temperature and are a consequence of oceans heating up and giving up CO2.
It is like saying that you can produce acceleration in your car by producing more exhaust gases.

The world is heating up even if very slightly, because of increased solar activity
The truth about global warming - it's the Sun that's to blame - Telegraph

"The Sun's radiance may well have an impact on climate change but it needs to be looked at in conjunction with other factors such as greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcano activity," he said. The research adds weight to the views of David Bellamy, the conservationist. "Global warming - at least the modern nightmare version - is a myth," he said. "I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not.
"Instead, they have an unshakable faith in what has, unfortunately, become one of the central credos of the environmental movement: humans burn fossil fuels, which release increased levels of carbon dioxide - the principal so-called greenhouse gas - into the atmosphere, causing the atmosphere to heat up. They say this is global warming: I say this is poppycock."

^Debunked. In the link I posted earlier. As shown below.

Ice cores from Antarctica show that at the end of recent ice ages, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere usually started to rise only after temperatures had begun to climb. There is uncertainty about the timings, partly because the air trapped in the cores is younger than the ice, but it appears the lags might sometimes have been 800 years or more.
This proves that rising CO2 was not the trigger that caused the initial warming at the end of these ice ages – but no climate scientist has ever made this claim. It certainly does not challenge the idea that more CO2 heats the planet.
We know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas because it absorbs and emits certain frequencies of infrared radiation. Basic physics tells us that gases with this property trap heat radiating from the Earth, that the planet would be a lot colder if this effect was not real and that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will trap even more heat.

So why has Earth regularly switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods in the past million years? It has long been thought that this is due to variations in Earth's orbit, known as Milankovitch cycles. These change the amount and location of solar energy reaching Earth. However, the correlation is not perfect and the heating or cooling effect of these orbital variations is small. It has also long been recognised that they cannot fully explain the dramatic temperature switches between ice ages and interglacials.
So if orbital changes did cause the recent ice ages to come and go, there must also have been some kind of feedback effect that amplified the changes in temperatures they produced. Ice is one contender: as the great ice sheets that covered large areas of the planet during the ice ages melted, less of the Sun's energy would have been reflected back into space, accelerating the warming. But the melting of ice lags behind the beginning of interglacial periods by far more than the rises in CO2.
World warmer

Another feedback contender, suggested over a century ago, is CO2. In the past decade, detailed studies of ice cores have shown there is a remarkable correlation between CO2 levels and temperature over the past half million years (see Vostok ice cores show constant CO2 as temperatures fell).
It takes about 5000 years for an ice age to end and, after the initial 800 year lag, temperature and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere rise together for a further 4200 years.
What seems to have happened at the end of the recent ice ages is that some factor – most probably orbital changes – caused a rise in temperature. This led to an increase in CO2, resulting in further warming that caused more CO2 to be released and so on: a positive feedback that amplified a small change in temperature. At some point, the shrinking of the ice sheets further amplified the warming.
Models suggest that rising greenhouse gases, including CO2, explains about 40% of the warming as the ice ages ended. The figure is uncertain because it depends on how the extent of ice coverage changed over time, and there is no way to pin this down precisely.

[Guest Close Marc1]

Re: Human Induced Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

Ha ha, Troy, yes in deed I did, and it's all good, nothing against you believe me.

It's just that it is so predictable the method used to push the same line again and again, "..human activity causes global warming .." The myth buster's websites and articles listing all the reasons why I am right and you are wrong are all similar...(actually I should say - I am wrong and you are right) Just think of any conspiracy you like to think of and run a search and you will find a website will this type of "information" to lead the sheep to the relative sheep pen.

Perhaps you should think on a completely different line for a minute.
Forget digging for "scientific" information to prove one way or another.
Start digging for why on earth most if not all government on earth are all of the sudden united on a quest to "save the planet"?
When ever have government agreed on something? when have political parties agreed on anything at all?
Why would government all over the world poison the atmosphere with atomic explosions and hide the real damage?, allow thousands of the most hideous health risk to exist, think food additives, preservatives, pesticide, GM seeds, industrial pollutant, dioxin residues in cloths..., Agricultural plague and pests to be introduced in order to create a market for antidotes, hide the reasons or origin of human plagues and disease, intentionally create war, kill their own citizen in order to justify war...and I can go on and on...and you want to believe that really, all of the sudden, all this murderous degenerates have gone into a confessional, came out all clean and good and have the health of the planet and ourselves at heart?
They have gone all nice and green?